Picking March Madness Brackets: Choker’s Index 2018

Photo of Iowa St basketball players
Iowa State will not be in this year’s NCAA tournament (dead last in the Big 12) but if they were, you’d be wise to not pick them in your brackets.

It started out as a simple experiment. Which NCAA men’s basketball teams historically choked the most. It has now become a yearly obsession. Picking March Madness brackets is now an annual ritual—one that comes with fierce emotions. These emotions strongly pull most fans to move their team forward in the tournament while X’ing off the teams they hate.

Don’t let emotions rule you. You’re better than that! Use data instead.

With that in mind, I present the 2018 Edition of the Choker’s Index. What is the Choker’s Index you say? Well, I’m glad you asked.

The Choker’s Index began in 2013. Each year after I added a bit more.  Last year I published this piece right here on TrePryor.com, even though college basketball is a far cry from Louisville real estate. I say, “Adios!” to convention.

This year, I’ve updated all the data that stretches back to the beginning of the expanded NCAA field in 1985. Here are the criteria:

  • I’m only looking at schools who’ve made the tournament at least 15 years. Here are the 11 teams I added this year: Georgia Tech, Iowa, Iowa State, LSU, Marquette, N. Carolina State, Stanford, Utah, Virginia, W. Virginia and Wake Forest.
  • The Index is weighted. Opening rounds games count the most, and as the tournament progresses, the factor is reduced slightly each round.
  • When you are a higher seed and lose that’s the only thing that matters. Losing to a better team doesn’t affect the team’s Choker’s Index.
  • The bigger the defeat, the more it costs you! If you’re the #1 seed and you fall to the #2 in the fourth round, that only costs you a half point. No biggie. But when the #15 knocks out the #2 in the opening round, that’s 13 points!

Biggest Upsets in NCAA Tournament History

Speaking of which, here are the biggest upsets (choke jobs) in the history of the NCAA Tournament! I’ve linked up video highlights on those game scores. Enjoy!

Year Choker Underdog Game
1991 Syracuse Richmond 69-73
1993 Arizona Santa Clara 61-64
1997 South Carolina Coppin State 78-65
2001 Iowa State Hampton 57-58
2012 Missouri Norfolk State 84-96
2012 Duke Lehigh 70-75
2013 Georgetown Florida Gulf Coast 68-78
2016 Michigan State Middle Tennessee State 81-90

 

Choker’s in the 2017 NCAA Tournament

So before we get to the updated index, let’s see who laid down last year. Who wet the bed? Which teams simply laid an egg?

As it turns out, 2017 wasn’t a big year for upsets with just 7. Seeds held strong, even though all the experts thought the tournament was wide open. Go figure.

But here’s who did choke last year:

  1. Arizona (2) lost to Xavier (11) in the third round: -6
  2. Villanova (1) lost to Wisconsin (8) in the second round: -5.9
  3. Maryland (6) lost to Xavier (11) in the first round: -5
  4. Duke (2) lost to S. Carolina (7) in the second round: -4.2
  5. Louisville (2) lost to Michigan (7) in the second round: -4.2
  6. Florida (4) lost to Wisconsin (8) in the third round: -2
  7. Kansas (1) lost to Oregon (3) in the fourth round: -1

Putting all those together only results in a Choker Index of 28.3 for the year. Lame! It’s just a little better than the lowest year on record—a -19.2 index points in 2007.

We want more upsets. How about this year we see another year like 2001 where the index sky-rocketed up to 78.12! Let’s go underdogs.

The 2018 Choker’s Index

Ok, enough of the preliminaries, let’s get the chart so you can know who not to select when you pick March Madness brackets this year. This year I kept the negative sign so that we can better see that it’s a problem a large number next to your favorite team’s name. The Choker’s Index is the average

2018 Choker's Index
Here’s the updated Choker’s Index for 2018 so you can pick your March Madness brackets with confidence.

So we see some newcomers rise to the top of the list. Last year’s report went Missouri, Notre Dame and then UCLA. Now we’ve got Iowa State, Missouri, and West Virginia. It’s crazy because West Virginia doesn’t choke often, just 20% of the time but when they do… look out!

The inverse is Iowa State who only choked 3 games out of their 18 tournament appearances but 2 of those were massive choke jobs.

The average Choker’s Index for all the of teams in this report is -4.07, which is where the red line lives.

It’s really up to you whether to devalue teams that choke more often or those that perform the biggest chokes.

Fun Facts

  • Average Number of Upsets Per Year: 8.82
  • Biggest Upset Year: 2006 (17 Upsets)
  • Average Choker Index Total Per Year: 34.22
  • Largest Choker Index Total: 2001 (78.12 Choker Index Points)

So there you have it. Go forth and win your bracket contest!

5 Tips to Finding the Best Realtor for First Time Home Buyer

Are you a first-time home buyer and you don’t know what to do first? Relax, you’re not alone. You’ve come to the right place. Here are five tips that will help in Best Realtor for First Time Home Buyer.

Photo of Finding the Best Realtor for First Time Home Buyer
The best Realtors for first time home buyers have these five qualities.

Every person is different. Just like every house is different. Agents are the same way. There are some great ones, some terrible ones and a whole bunch of average ones in the middle.

Buying a home can be a tricky situation so don’t try to go it alone. Far better to find an awesome agent who’ll be your on your side throughout the entire process. Don’t worry, with the right Realtor, buying your first time can actually be a great experience.

Let’s dig right in!

#1 The Best Realtors Are Great Teachers

This is especially important for first-time home buyers. First time out, everything is new! At this point, you don’t even know what it is that you don’t know.

Some agents have some excellent experience but when the time comes to communicate that real estate knowledge to their clients, they fall down. It takes a great teacher to share their expert understanding with their buyer clients in a way that they understand and can use.

In the end, the client is the one making the decisions so you need to understand how all the variables work. Top agents teach their clients everything they need to know.

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Almost 30% Gains in Louisville Home Values in Past Decade

A friend of mine shared this story about how California home prices are hitting their highest point recently. As I was reading, I thought, “Yeah, so have we here in Louisville.” Immediately, my next thought was, “I wonder how Louisville Home Values match up?”

Photo of homes in Indian Springs, Louisville Home Values
Louisville home values have changed a great deal in the past decade but maybe not the way you might have imagined. | Photo: Tre Pryor

Well… that’s the easy part.

First, I grabbed the chart from the California story.

California home prices chart
As you can see, this chart goes back to 2007, a few years before the housing crisis.

Louisville Home Values: 2007-2017

Then, I went to collect all the same data for Louisville, Kentucky. Going a step further, I wanted to see both Average Home Sale Prices, as well as, Median Home Prices. Why not, right?

Continue reading “Almost 30% Gains in Louisville Home Values in Past Decade”

Pro Strats for Selling Your Home in Winter

Almost everyone knows that more home buyers are out during the Summer. It’s the peak season! The weather is warm. Kids are out of school for a couple of months so it makes sense to make a move during this time. But what about selling your home in Winter? If it’s necessary, what’s the best way to handle it?

Photo of Selling Your Home in Winter
Selling Your Home in Winter can be a challenge. But these professional strategies are your best bet to selling.

This article gives you the top six strategies to sell your home this Winter. Take it from Louisville’s real estate expert, these are the big ones.

Let’s dig right in!

#1 Price at Fair Market Value

It’s always important to price the home appropriately at the very beginning of the listing period. This is even more important during Winter!

Continue reading “Pro Strats for Selling Your Home in Winter”

The Best Month to Sell Your House May Surprise You

It’s no secret I’m a numbers geek. I believe if done correctly, stats tell us a great deal. So, I was quite surprised to see these results. Afer I collected all the data to determine the best month to sell your house I was blown away. Curious?

Photo of home in Summer - Best month to sell your house article
When selling your house, targeting a particular month or two can reap major rewards!

Ok, before we jump right in. A few things I’ve learned about home prices in my real estate career.

  1. Back in 2006, I knew more homes sold during the Summer months but I thought home prices moved ever so slowly higher, month after month after month. That’s wrong. That’s very wrong.
  2. By 2008, I now understood that these Summer months also returned greater home sale prices than even the months that followed that… same… year. Crazy, huh?
  3. Today in 2017, I (finally) decided to crunch the numbers to get a better grasp on the best month to sell your house.  Here’s my mantra that’s similar to Papa John’s. More data, better results. Let’s go!

Before I began this article, I thought the average prices would be very similar to a standard Bell curve.

Bell curve
This chart shows a normal distribution or Bell curve.

Continue reading “The Best Month to Sell Your House May Surprise You”

Home Design Trends for 2017

Welcome! Home design trends aren’t always easy to spot. Some hang on for years then slowly fade away.

Other trends appear out of nowhere, so hot, then exit just as quickly. Then there are those interior design principles that are permanently good—they will never go out of style because they are simply so strong.

In this article, I’ll cover three types of trends. First, we’ll look at trends that are definitely IN! Next, we’ll hit a few that are out and not likely to return for some time.

Lastly, we’ll hit a few that are currently receiving mixed receptions. Some believe these are smokin’ hot trends while others disagree. Those will ultimately be up to you because, in the end, your home design is truly up to you.

Definitely IN Design Trends

Let’s jump right in! Here are 7 home design trends that are hot in 2017.

IN Trend #1: Mix Multiple Textures

Photo of bedroom that mixes multiple textures
One trick that great designers fully grasp is mixing multiple textures. Wood, metal, fabric, and stone can be combined in a myriad of ways. When done well, the result is spectacular.

Continue reading “Home Design Trends for 2017”

Best Bang for Your Buck in Louisville Real Estate 2017

Each year I update the data required to determine, where is the best bang for your buck in Louisville real estate. I began this practice back in 2014. I’ve added a couple new Louisville real estate areas to the mix but what has been most striking was the contrast between the most expensive areas and the best values.

Except, this year that’s not the case.

The most eye-popping thing this year is the huge increases we see in so many of these areas. Heck, 9 out of the 24 areas covered saw double-digit increases in the sold price per square foot. My goodness!

When I did this story back in 2015 there were just three.

The trend started last year with increased home values across Louisville and has kept its strength into 2017. Average home appreciation according to government statistics typically runs about 4% for Louisville, Kentucky. Current numbers are blowing those averages out of the water.

Enough talk, let’s get to the chart!

Bang for Your Buck in Louisville Real Estate chart for 2017
With this handy map, we can quickly see where your Louisville real estate dollars go the farthest.

Continue reading “Best Bang for Your Buck in Louisville Real Estate 2017”

3 Most Powerful Ways to Make Your Real Estate Listing Stand Out

With so many homes available for sale, it’s vital to make your real estate listing stand out. Unless you are older than 71, your first step in buying a house is looking at homes online.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 99% of those 36 years old and younger use the Internet to look at photos, evaluate neighborhoods and compare properties. I imagine the percentage of all buyers is very close to that number, as well.

Photo of a great online photo that will make your real estate listing stand out
High-quality, professional photographs are huge for online listings. This one was taken by Justin Jordan. Isn’t it awesome?

The Internet is now ubiquitous. Whether you are looking to buy or not, looking at homes for sale online is a favorite pastime of many Americans just to browse and see “what’s out there.”

Websites like Pinterest have largely grown up out of the desire to see pretty things. Gorgeous real estate certainly fits in that category!

So given that almost everyone who might be buying a home will be looking online, how do you make sure people are focused on your home’s listing and not your competitors?

I’ve identified the three most powerful ways to make your real estate listing stand out.

Continue reading “3 Most Powerful Ways to Make Your Real Estate Listing Stand Out”

6 Stellar Tips For Millennial Home Buyers

The housing market is ever changing. Why would the twenty-tens be any different? I’m presenting these tips for millennial home buyers because due to your particular preferences and the speed of our real estate market, home buying today is a bigger challenge than a decade ago.

Photo of a cute home for my Tips For Millennial Home Buyers article
If you’re a millennial, I already know you have a smartphone nearby. Take advantage of great apps like this great Remax one that makes looking at homes for sale in Louisville easier than ever before.

I hope these six tips will help you going forward. If you have any specific questions, I’m happy to help, please contact me.

Tip #1: Should You Even Buy?

The first tip, and most important, is whether you should even buy a home at all. Some should. Others shouldn’t. How can you tell?

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